推薦產(chǎn)品
3-(4-chlorophenyl)-4-phenyl-4,5-dihydro-1H-pyrazole 2-(chloromethyl)-3-methylpyridinehydrochloride 1-(2-bromo-4-methylphenyl)ethanone 3-chloroisoquinoline-4-carbonitrile 5,8-dichloropyrido[3,2-d]pyridazine 2-bromomalononitrile 2-(4-(bromomethyl)phenyl)benzo[d]thiazole 1-(bromomethyl)-3-methoxy-2-nitrobenzene 6-bromo-1H-[1,2,3]triazolo[4,5-b]pyridine 4-iodo-2-((trimethylsilyloxy)methyl)thiazole 6-iodoimidazo[1,2-a]pyridine-3-carbonitrile 2-(4-chlorophenyl)-2-morpholinoacetonitrile 4-chloro-7H-pyrrolo[2,3-d]pyrimidine 4-chloroisothiazole 5-bromo-6-chloro-1H-indole 7-chloro-3H-imidazo[4,5-b]pyridine ethyl3-(4-formylphenyl)propanoate 2,3-dibromobenzaldehyde 1-(5H-chromeno[2,3-b]pyridin-7-yl)ethanone 5H-chromeno[2,3-b]pyridin-5-one 3-chloroisoquinoline-4-carbaldehyde (E)-2-(3-oxoprop-1-enyl)benzaldehyde methyl4-formyl-3-nitrobenzoate 5,6-dimethoxy-2,2-dimethyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-inden-1-one 1-methylbicyclo[4.1.0]heptan-3-one 3-nitro-4-(trifluoromethoxy)benzaldehyde 2-hydroxyquinoline-6-carbaldehyde 2-nitro-3-(trifluoromethyl)benzaldehyde 1-(2-fluoro-4-methoxyphenyl)propan-2-one tert-butyl3-fluoro-4-oxopiperidine-1-carboxylate tert-butyl3-oxopropylcarbamate 2,2-dimethylcyclohexanone 9H-carbazole-3-carbaldehyde N,N-dimethyl-2-oxoacetamide 2-methylpent-4-yn-2-ol 3-tert-butyl-4-hydroxybenzonitrile 4-bromo-2-tert-butylphenol 1,3-dibutoxypropan-2-ol methyl4-hydroxyquinoline-6-carboxylate methyl3-cyano-4-hydroxybenzoate 4-chloro-6-methoxyquinolin-7-ol 3,4-dihydro-2H-benzo[b][1,4]oxazin-7-ol 2-(2-aminothiazol-5-yl)ethanolhydrochloride (R)-ethyl2-chloropropanoate (S)-4-amino-5-(4,4-dimethylcyclohexylamino)-5-oxopentanoicacid (1s,4s)-4-hydroxycyclohexanecarboxylicacid (S)-2-(tetrahydrofuran-3-yloxy)aceticacid (1S,4R)-1-methyl-4-(prop-1-en-2-yl)cyclohex-2-enol (R)-4-(hydroxymethyl)oxazolidin-2-one (S)-4-(hydroxymethyl)oxazolidin-2-one 化工資訊 油脂在一季度弱勢(shì)下跌后，4月份反彈較為強(qiáng)勁。原油及全球宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)回暖驅(qū)動(dòng)，油脂隨之反彈。展望5月，市場(chǎng)關(guān)注以下因素:
1、原油或成反彈最大因素
2、生柴利潤(rùn)較小，政策補(bǔ)貼存疑
2、不可忽視的厄爾尼諾炒作
在國(guó)際油脂供需方面，
1、馬棕油產(chǎn)量恢復(fù)快，需求小有起色
2、全球豆油供應(yīng)充裕，消費(fèi)需求微幅提升
3、舊作美豆庫(kù)存高企，新作美豆持續(xù)擴(kuò)種，美豆油庫(kù)存企穩(wěn)回升
在國(guó)內(nèi)油脂供需方面，
豆油進(jìn)口利潤(rùn)近期改善明顯，9月進(jìn)口盈利已出現(xiàn)正值，預(yù)計(jì)后市將有更多買家直接從阿根廷進(jìn)口豆油。棕油情況類似豆油，進(jìn)口盈虧亦升至接近盈虧平衡點(diǎn)，而大豆進(jìn)口壓榨利潤(rùn)近期雖有小幅下行，但也為正值。這將刺激貿(mào)易商后期加大進(jìn)口大豆、豆油、棕油。國(guó)內(nèi)油脂步入需求淡季，庫(kù)存處于歷史低位，豆油商業(yè)庫(kù)存62萬(wàn)噸，棕櫚油40萬(wàn)噸。但后期大豆到港量龐大也是板上釘釘?shù)氖拢瑝赫ダ麧?rùn)和進(jìn)口利潤(rùn)較好，油廠開(kāi)機(jī)率繼續(xù)提升，國(guó)內(nèi)油脂庫(kù)存有望在5月下旬見(jiàn)拐點(diǎn)。
策略上，5月油脂維持低位震蕩，短期內(nèi)，因庫(kù)存偏低，供應(yīng)階段性偏緊，加上厄爾尼諾、原油及地緣政治的利多刺激，油脂還有反彈可能。但我們更應(yīng)關(guān)注基差水平。若基差再度大幅升水至400左右，階段性利多因素頻發(fā)的情況下，可以短多至基差平水獲利平倉(cāng)。但若基差已經(jīng)平水，跟蹤到港船期后期激增，油脂將繼續(xù)回歸基本面，持續(xù)弱勢(shì)，現(xiàn)階段油脂由反彈轉(zhuǎn)為反轉(zhuǎn)言之尚早，長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，依舊空頭格局不變。
