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國家糧油信息中心5月15日；盡管5月開始大豆到港量增加，壓榨量提升，但由于豆粕需求較差，后期豆粕庫存將迅速提高，可能導(dǎo)致企業(yè)被迫停機，從而影響到豆油的供給，后期豆油庫存恢復(fù)程度有限。加之市場對厄爾尼諾影響的擔(dān)憂升級，美豆油及馬來西亞棕櫚油價格同樣走勢偏強，均支撐后期豆油價格。
昨日，國內(nèi)主要港口棕櫚油庫存為40萬噸，較上周的38.5萬噸小幅提高。由于我國廠商增加采購，后期棕櫚油到港將有所增加。預(yù)計5-6月到港量將達到50萬噸/月。由于目前進口虧損幅度較小，廠商仍可能增加遠月采購。當(dāng)前各地豆棕現(xiàn)貨價差在900-1000元/噸，預(yù)計后期棕油供應(yīng)增加，價格走勢或弱于豆油，豆棕價差有望小幅擴大。
預(yù)計2015年哈爾濱地區(qū)大豆播種面積200萬畝，需種量約800萬公斤。受大豆種植效益較低的影響，農(nóng)民大豆種植積極性不高，種植面積較去年的210萬畝下降4.76%，大豆種子供需整體平衡。預(yù)計2015年大豆種子批發(fā)價6-7元/公斤，零售價7-8元/公斤，與去年持平。
